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Not all of these occur in the ocean. Dozens of people die each year at American lakes.
“On days with high surf and potential for dangerous currents, a simple rule the National Weather Service stresses is to ‘stay dry when waves are high’,” says Matt Friedlein, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in Chicago.
There’s some recent good news for beachgoers on that front: Forecasters now have a model that can predict the probability of rip currents up to six days out.
Still, some states and Puerto Rico are way ahead of pace regarding surf zone-related fatalities compared to previous years. Florida has 21, an increase from 16 in all of 2020. Texas, California and Puerto Rico have higher numbers than they had in all of 2020. Rhode Island, Oregon and Wisconsin are currently tied with their 2020 total numbers
Wisconsin? Yes, you read that correctly. Just because Wisconsin does not sit along the ocean does not mean residents are risk-free.
Surf zone risks not limited to oceans
“Great Lakes waves tend to arrive at shore in closer succession than ocean waves, which can make it harder for a swimmer to recover if they are knocked down,” says Friedlein. “The shorelines also have many piers and break walls where strong currents can develop and surround, as well as gaps in sandbars that favor currents.”
“In general, the weather conditions most favorable for rip currents are onshore directed strong winds of 15+ mph sustained speed, and waves greater than 3 feet,” Friedlein explains. “Lake Michigan in particular has a long north-to-south orientation, which with stout northerly or northwesterly winds behind cold fronts can result in water piling up significantly along the Indiana and Michigan shores, creating favorable conditions for high surf and strong currents.”
“Typically, with rip currents people get caught off-guard,” says CNN meteorologist Rob Shackelford. “They find themselves being pulled away from shore quickly, panic sets in and they find they don’t know what to do to get back to shore safely.”
Friedlein says the key is to stay calm.
“Do not try to swim directly back to shore, as this will only cause fatigue and worsen the situation,” Friedlein cautions. “Instead, a swimmer will want to swim to the side, or parallel to shore, to exit the channel of stronger flow that can often form in a gap in a sandbar. Once out of the current and not being pulled away from shore, the swimmer then should swim back to shore.”
There often are visual signs of a rip current that you can look out for. For example, the rip current may appear darker than the surrounding water. Usually, you can look for areas where waves do not break, flanked by areas where the water is breaking. Knowing some of these warning signs can be lifesaving.
NOAA launches new forecast tool
NOAA has recently launched a national rip current forecast model in an effort to broaden awareness and implement life-saving alerts.
This new tool can predict the hourly probability of rip currents along US beaches up to six days out, allowing critical information to get out in a timely manner.
“Extending forecasting capabilities for dangerous rip currents out to six days provides forecasters and local authorities greater time to inform residents about the presence of this deadly beach hazard, thereby saving lives and protecting communities.”