Investors are holding their breath this morning as they await the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest monthly jobs report.
All eyes will be on whether the labor market is showing signs of loosening up — one of the most crucial factors that will help the Federal Reserve determine its next steps in the fight against decades-high inflation.
The US economy is expected to have added 250,000 jobs in September, which would be the lowest monthly jobs gain since December 2020, according to Refinitiv estimates.
If numbers come in as estimates suggest, investors will likely be very happy. A weakening labor market will exert downward pressure on wages and inflation. That means the Fed’s policy is working and that it might pivot away from aggressive interest rate hikes.
August jobs data already indicated that the historically tight labor market has loosened by a notch, reports my colleague Alicia Wallace. The jobs report for that month found that America added 315,000 positions, a much lower level than the 512,000 average monthly gain over the past 12 months.
But while the hotly anticipated headline jobs number is falling, it’s still robust, BLS data shows. The monthly average prior to the pandemic was around 200,000.