ISLAMABAD – The first session of the current assembly was held on 13 August 2018 in which all the elected members took the parliamentary oath. On 17 August 2018, Imran Khan secured 176 votes and became 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan while his contender and now Leader of the Opposition Shehbaz Sharif received 96 votes. If all goes well, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf government will complete its 5-year constitutional term on 16 August 2023. However, there are certain considerations that may persuade Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf Chairman and Prime Minister Imran Khan for early elections and he may use the option of dissolving the assemblies.
At least 6 constitutional offices are of vital importance when it comes to holding general elections in the country. These include President of Pakistan, Caretaker PM, Chief Justice of Pakistan, Army Chief, DG ISI and the Chief Election Commissioner. What suits Imran Khan and what suits him not when it comes to the timing of the next general elections in the country would determine if he really goes for a big decision of dissolving the assemblies at the time of his choice, to get persons of his liking in the important constitutional offices at the time of elections. It all may have been just the conspiracy theories that have been exaggerating Khan’s pursuit for a ‘favourable’ environment when next general elections are held in the country.
The options and the conspiracy theories!
If assemblies complete constitutional term, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) will have 60 days to hold next elections and when the National Assembly or provincial assembly is dissolved, a general election to the assembly shall be held within a period of 90 days after the dissolution. If the assemblies continue up to August 16, 2023 the day when these will be completing their 5-year constitutional term, the next general elections shall be held before October 15, 2023.
In October 2023, Dr Arif Alvi will continue to be in the President office.
On the question of appointment of caretaker PM, he will be appointed by the President in consultation with the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition in the outgoing National Assembly. In case, no consensus is developed, names of the nominees shall be referred to ECP for final decision within 2 days.
The matter will be decided ultimately by the ECP being headed by Sikandar Sultan Raja. Differences between the government and the CEC Raja are now in the open. CEC Raja will continue in his office till 2025. There is a conspiracy theory that incumbent government would like to replace the sitting CEC before the next general elections are held. The PTI government has no option to remove the CEC except moving the Supreme Judicial Council.
Current Chief Justice Gulzar Ahmed will continue till February 1, 2022. Justice Umar Atta Bandial will hold the office of Chief justice of Pakistan on 2nd February 2022 and continue till September 16, 2023 in his office. He will retire almost just one month before the next elections are held if the current assemblies complete their tenure. Justice Qazi Faez Isa will be the next Chief Justice as he will be stepping into the CJ office on 17 September 2023 — just days before the polling day. Here comes another conspiracy theory; the PTI would not like Justice Isa to be in the CJ office at the time of general elections. To achieve the ‘objective’, the PM will have to dissolve the assembly at least months before expiry of the constitutional term.
Next comes the office of Army Chief. General Bajwa will retire on 29 November 2022. Another conspiracy theory suggests that the PTI government wanted the next elections to be held under the supervision of the current military establishment. The PM, according to yet another conspiracy theory, wants Ex-ISI Chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed to be appointed as next Chief of the Army Staff after Bajwa retires. However, for one’s elevation to COAS, the precedent is that one must first serve as a corps commander.
On Wednesday, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed was appointed as Corps Commander Peshawar.It is the prerogative of the Prime Minister to appoint the country’s army chief, and Gen Faiz Hameed is among the top contenders.
In 25 July 2018 elections, the PTI received the most votes and won the most seats. The election day saw the PTI receive 32 percent of the vote, its highest share of the vote since its foundation, while the PML-N received 24 percent. The next general election is likely to be held in a more charged atmosphere as compared to the 2018 elections. It is also expected to be contested closely between the two rival parties; PTI and PML-N at the national level. However, it is yet to see how things unfold in the coming months.