It’s a leveling factor in the partisanship of the country. It doesn’t matter quite so much that there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country since Republicans control more state legislatures and, as a result, a lot more of the redistricting process.
Pay attention to the drawing of the maps. Now — between the release of the once-a-decade Census and the next midterms, in 2022 — is when states redraw their congressional maps and there will be warring proposals, standoffs and court battles across the country before the final lines are drawn.
Redistricting. Both parties have a history of drawing maps to improve their standing in Congress and protect incumbents. Republicans have been much more successful at it in recent decades.
There’s art and science in creatively drawing lines to cram people of similar views and party registrations together. The outcome very much affect who controls Congress. That’s especially true this year when Democrats have a 5-seat majority and are heading into a congressional election cycle when the president’s party almost always loses seats.
Trivia! Name two of the four times since 1862 when the president’s party DID NOT lose seats in the midterm.
Voters don’t generally like overt partisanship in the drawing of these maps. Given the opportunity in statewide elections, they’ve taken authority from state legislatures and handed it to nonpartisan, bipartisan or independent commissions.
Cook’s analysis of the current state of the process in all 50 states suggests that after Republicans will gain perhaps one or two seats (they say 1.5 seats) when the dust settles from the redistricting process.
However, that does not mean the growth in people equaled a growth in Republicans.
Among the states that gained seats after the 2020 Census
- 4 went for Donald Trump in 2020 (Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Texas)
- 2 went for Joe Biden (Oregon and Colorado)
Among states losing seats after the 2020 Census
- 5 went for Biden (Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, Illinois, and New York) voted for Biden.
- 2 went for Trump (West Virginia and Ohio)
The Texas example. This year Texas is a good case study to learn about reapportionment and redistricting. It gained more seats through reapportionment — two — than any other state after the Census.
On the racial makeup of state legislative districts, the Tribune writes that 95% of the state’s population growth captured in the 2020 Census was fueled by people of color.
“But, the new map creates fewer districts where Black and Hispanic people make up a majority of eligible voters. Black and Hispanic Texans make up two racial groups that along with Asian Texans outpaced the growth of white residents in the state over the last decade.”
On partisan leanings, the Tribune writes that the old map includes 76 districts that went for Trump in 2020. The new proposal has 86 that would have gone for Trump.
It’s an interesting idea, but it doesn’t have much traction at the moment.
*** TRIVIA ANSWER: There are exactly four midterms in the 40 since 1862 when the President’s party didn’t lose seats, according to Brookings.
- 1902. Republicans gained 9 seats. But this is a flawed example since Democrats gained more, 25, thanks to the Census and the booming country.
- 1934. It was the height of the Great Depression and Roosevelt’s Democrats were rolling.
- 1998. It was a month after Bill Clinton had been impeached by the House and just before his impeachment trial. Voters went with Democrats anyway.
- 2002. It was the run-up to the Iraq war and in the aftermath of 9/11.