![Democrat John Fetterman, left, and Republican Mehmet Oz are facing off for a US Senate seat in Pennsylvania.](https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/4259e29f-8b93-432e-bf3a-73511fdfc02f.jpg)
No Senate race in the country has received as much money and attention as the hotly contested and at-times divisive contest between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.
And with over one million ballots already cast and Election Day just hours away, the reason is clear: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey’s retirement in a state President Joe Biden won two years ago has created Democrats’ best opportunity to pick up a seat and save their narrow majority. For Republicans, holding the seat is key to toppling that majority.
“This is a must-win race,” said Steven Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, the preeminent Republican Senate super PAC that has blanketed the state with tens of millions in ads attacking Fetterman. “We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority.”
With even upbeat Democrats conceding the party is unlikely to keep control of the House on Tuesday, Senate control is arguably the most closely watched battle on Election Day. Republicans only need a net gain of one seat. Democrats are focused on protecting incumbents in Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire and Georgia and possibly flipping seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.
But it is the race in Pennsylvania that both parties view as critical. From Labor Day through Election Day, nearly $160 million will be spent on ads by both parties, more than any other Senate race, according to ad tracker AdImpact.
“The bottom line is if Democrats are able to flip a current Republican-held seat, there is likely no path for the Republicans to get to 51 votes in the Senate,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic operative based in Western Pennsylvania. “It gives the Democrats some breathing room because if one of the incumbents goes down, this is the buffer. And the inverse is true. If for some reason we can’t win here, it is going to be a bad night in multiple states.”
That importance was clear as Oz and Fetterman crisscrossed the commonwealth in the final week of campaigning, trying to appeal to last-minute voters and urging people who have long decided who they’re voting for to now get their friends and family to the polls.
“It’s a jump ball,” Fetterman said bluntly on Sunday in Harrisburg. “On Tuesday, it’s going to come down to every single vote.”
“I have one job. … Win this race. You are the key,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the head of the Republican committee tasked with taking control of the Senate, said introducing Oz on Thursday. “You want a majority in the Senate? Yes. It comes right through Pennsylvania.”
CNN’s Kit Maher contributed to this report.