CNN
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Vladimir Putin is set to sign a law streamlining military conscription in Russia, a move that has stoked fears of another wave of mobilization for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The bill would allow for the electronic delivery of military call-up papers, in addition to traditional letters, and would ban those liable for military service from traveling abroad.
Russian officials have denied suggestions that the bill lays the groundwork for a fresh wave of mobilization – Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters it is meant only to “fix the mess” that followed September’s controversial partial mobilization order, which was beset by issues and prompted thousands of Russians to flee.
But the strict new rules make it harder and more difficult for Russian men to avoid an order should it be made, and Russians have told CNN of their concerns about the plan.
“Now it will be much easier to mobilize me, given how digitalized life in Moscow has become,” Alexey, a 41-year-old lawyer from Moscow, told CNN. While he is not within the official age range for mobilization, he does not expect the Kremlin to stick to their own guidelines when calling up recruits.
“I have no illusions with regard to the assurances of authorities, who insist these amendments were passed exclusively to improve the draft’s book-keeping and have nothing to do with the second mobilization wave,” he said. “I don’t believe a word of this.
“I believe the mobilization has never ended. It has began and continues to the day,” he added. You can look at this development as preparation of the state to step up mobilization. To make it possible to notify and mobilize large number of conscripts in a short period of time.”
Under the bill, the Kremlin would consider Russians notified from the moment they receive a summons, even if they haven’t seen the call-up, and would then ban them from leaving Russia seven days later.
People who fail to show up for a military summons without a valid reason within 20 days will face restrictions, such as being unable to register a vehicle and drive it, being unable to register an apartment, being unable to register as an individual entrepreneur or as self-employed, and be blocked from getting a loan.
The bill passed through its third reading in the lower chamber of Russia’s parliament Tuesday, and was approved by the upper chamber, the Federation Council, on Wednesday. Its final formality is to be signed into law by Putin.
Asked during a regular call with reporters if the Kremlin is concerned that the proposed law, if passed, would trigger another wave of mass exodus of Russians, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “Absolutely not. It has nothing to do with mobilization, it has to do with military registration.”
But the move could lay the groundwork for a more seamless expansion of Russia’s recruitment attempts.
“I have no trust in today’s authorities in Russia. I fear for my son even more than about my own life,” said Alexey, whose son falls within the official age range for conscription.
CNN also spoke to Olga, a 48-year-old woman who fears her son, who is 16, will be sent to fight in the coming years, disrupting his plans for higher education.
“I feel very badly about this war. And same goes for all other wars and any deaths by force regardless of the cause,” she said. “I would prefer for wars to be fought only by professional military or volunteers.
“Should (the war) drag on and intensify, and if there is a real second wave of mobilization, then I think some will try to leave (Russia), of course,” she added.
Russia’s Defense Ministry routinely conscripts men for compulsory military service twice a year, in spring and autumn. The spring conscription this year will apply to 147,000 citizens aged between 18 and 27 and will take place from April 1 to July 15, according to an official document published by the government.
Currently, conscription documents in Russia must be hand-delivered by the local military enlistment office or through an employer. The new bill makes an electronic summons – uploaded to a government portal called Gosuslugi – equal to the traditional method, and does not take into account whether it has been read.
“There is no second wave,” Peskov said after being pressed further to respond to rumors of a new attempt at mass mobilization. The bill is merely designed to make the process “modern, efficient and convenient for citizens,” he told press on a conference call later on Wednesday.
That rare admission of failure comes after an initial effort in September that was greeted by chaos, as many Russians headed to the border to avoid being sent to fight. Protests also erupted in ethnic minority regions, and some military enlistment offices have been set on fire. The original announcement also sparked rare anti-war demonstrations across Russia.
Officials said the draft’s target of recruiting 300,000 personnel had been met by late October, and brought the drive to an end.
Though the Kremlin has been quick to downplay the significance of the move, its provisions and timing are convenient for a military bogged down in stalemate in its ground campaign in eastern Ukraine, after months of grinding combat which has bled their manpower and weaponry.
Western officials last week told CNN they believe Russia has a problem generating “trained military manpower.”
“[Russia has] acknowledged that they needed 400,000 more troops and that’s not just for the conflict [in Ukraine], but also to fulfill new formations which are going to be put on the new border with NATO and Finland,” the officials said in a briefing on Wednesday, answering a question from CNN.
“How they generate that is unclear at the moment,” the officials added, noting that a new wave of call-ups would pose risks for Moscow. “Whether the population can sustain another round of mobilization and whether the Kremlin actually wants to test the population’s resilience to that it is unclear at the moment, but the fact they haven’t done would indicate to us that they have some concerns about that.”